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本文在分析CES生产函数过程中引入劳动力市场,探讨了公共投资与就业的联系。本文认为,公共投资是通过劳动工资弹性来影响就业的。公共投资增加会引起劳动需求的工资弹性提高,而公共投资的溢出效应则会导致企业实际工资支出水平降低,两方面原因的共同作用引起就业的增长。在此分析基础上,本文用ARDL方法构建了一个多方程模型,并用中国的数据进行了检验。为提高分析的有效性,我们用SUR方法对模型做了系统估计,并进一步通过方程转化对变量的短期波动和长期均衡关系进行了探讨。实证研究发现,中国的公共投资增长在短期减少就业,但长期内对就业有显著的正效应。
This paper introduces labor market in the process of analyzing CES production function and discusses the relationship between public investment and employment. This paper argues that public investment affects employment through labor wage flexibility. The increase of public investment will lead to the increase of wage elasticity of labor demand, while the spillover effect of public investment will lead to the reduction of real wage expenditure of enterprises. The combined effect of the two reasons causes the increase of employment. Based on this analysis, this paper constructs a multi-equation model using ARDL method and tests it with Chinese data. In order to improve the validity of the analysis, we make a systematic estimation of the model by using the SUR method and discuss the relationship between short-term and long-term equilibrium of variables through equation transformation. Empirical studies have found that China’s public investment growth has reduced employment in the short run but has had a significant positive effect on employment in the long run.