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本文通过扩展凯恩斯消费模型理论,利用动态面板数据模型分析政府消费对居民消费的影响效应。结果表明:其一,政府消费对居民消费确实具有挤入效应,根据控制变量的不同,其作用在0.056至0.625之间波动,在加入滞后居民消费对当期居民消费产生的影响后,其挤入效应更为显著;其二,政府消费对居民消费的影响效应,不仅取决于其数量和结构,还取决于居民财富水平、财政收入高低等相关因素。其政策意义在于,政府财政支出应以消费为重心,以增加政府消费支出规模提升居民消费水平,通过优化财政支出结构充分发挥财政政策的积极作用。
This article expands the Keynesian consumption model theory, uses the dynamic panel data model to analyze the effect of government consumption on resident consumption. The results show that: First, government consumption does have a crowding in effect on residents’ consumption. According to the different control variables, its effect fluctuates between 0.056 and 0.625. After adding lagged residents’ consumption to current residents’ consumption, Effect is more significant; Second, the impact of government spending on household consumption, not only depends on the number and structure, but also depends on the level of household wealth, financial income level and other related factors. Its policy significance lies in that the government fiscal expenditure should focus on consumption, increase the scale of government consumption expenditure and raise the level of residents’ consumption, and give full play to the positive role of fiscal policy by optimizing the structure of fiscal expenditure.