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安全管理作为部队日常管理的重要职能,对维持部队安全稳定具有重要作用.为全面分析其可能面临的风险威胁,促进军队安全管理模式转型,在分析军队安全事故的基础上,提出了基于脆性风险熵的安全管理脆性风险分析及评估方法.结合脆性传递原理,提出了安全管理对象间基于不同脆性关系和风险事件相关性的脆性概率计算方法;按照安全事故的分类原则,量化确定了军队管理对象的风险等级,并结合直觉模糊集的基本原理提出了相应的脆性风险量化方法.最后以某部某次危险品输送任务为例进行说明,梳理任务各执行阶段中的脆性传递关系及触发过程,并通过分析各管理对象的脆性风险熵及其脆性风险值变化验证脆性变化的基本规律,结果表明,其变化趋势满足安全管理对风险触发过程的认知.
As an important function of army’s daily management, safety management plays an important role in maintaining the security and stability of the army.In order to comprehensively analyze the risk threats that it may face and promote the transformation of the military’s safety management mode, based on the analysis of military accidents, Based on the principle of brittleness transfer, a method for calculating the probability of embrittlement based on the relationship between different crispness and risk events is put forward. According to the classification principle of safety accidents, the object of military management The risk quantification method is proposed based on the basic principle of intuitionistic fuzzy set.Finally, a certain dangerous goods delivery mission is taken as an example to illustrate the fragile transmission relation and triggering process in each execution phase of the mission, The basic rules of the brittleness change were verified by analyzing the change of the brittleness risk entropy and the brittleness risk value of each management object. The results showed that the change trend satisfied the cognition of the safety management to the risk triggering process.