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目的了解南通市HIV/AIDS在≥50岁年龄组人群中HIV/AIDS的流行特征和流行趋势,为该年龄组艾滋病防治策略制定提供依据。方法运用描述性流行病学方法对南通市2009-2014年间≥50岁年龄组HIV/AIDS疫情进行分析,并运用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对2015-2016年艾滋病流行趋势进行预测。结果 2009-2014年间,南通市累计报告≥50岁HIV/AIDS病例411例,其中HIV194例(47.20%),AIDS217例(52.80%);男女性别比为4.01:1,职业农民为主,占61.80%;年新增艾滋病例占全人群新增艾滋病例在14.81%~32.67%之间波动,无明显上升趋势(χ2=2.4,P=0.12),50岁以上组和50岁以下组的发病比值差异有统计学意义(χ2=12.15,P=0.03);传播途径均为性接触传播,6年间性传播方式差异无统计学意义(χ2=7.2,P=0.21)。灰色系统GM(1,1)模型预测2015-2016年≥50岁年龄组新发现病例依次为180、245例。结论南通市≥50岁HIV/AIDS感染数仍将继续增长,开展老年人群艾滋病防控工作刻不容缓。
Objective To understand the prevalence and epidemiological trend of HIV / AIDS in HIV / AIDS population of ≥50 years in Nantong City and to provide basis for the development of HIV / AIDS prevention and control strategies in this age group. Methods Descriptive epidemiological methods were used to analyze the prevalence of HIV / AIDS in the population over 50 years of age from 2009 to 2014 in Nantong City. The gray system GM (1,1) model was used to predict the HIV / AIDS prevalence in 2015-2016. Results Between 2009 and 2014, 411 cases of HIV / AIDS ≥50 years were reported in Nantong City, among which HIV194 cases (47.20%) and AIDS2 cases (52.80%). The ratio of male to female was 4.01: 1, occupational farmers accounted for 61.80 %; The annual new AIDS cases accounted for the whole population new AIDS cases fluctuated between 14.81% ~ 32.67%, no significant upward trend (χ2 = 2.4, P = 0.12), the incidence of over 50 years old group and 50 years of age group The difference was statistically significant (χ2 = 12.15, P = 0.03). The routes of transmission were all sexually transmitted. There was no significant difference in sexual transmission between the two groups (χ2 = 7.2, P = 0.21). The Gray System GM (1,1) Model predicts that there will be 180,245 newly detected cases in the age group of ≥50 years from 2015 to 2016. Conclusion The number of HIV / AIDS ≥50 years old in Nantong City will continue to increase, so it is imperative to carry out AIDS prevention and control in the elderly population.