论文部分内容阅读
2008年的国际金融危机使我国电力消费需求快速下降,而宏观经济却保持正增长,这一现象使人们怀疑数据的真实性。本文使用景气分析方法建立了电力行业景气指数,分析了2000年以来电力行业的周期波动特征,并使用月度数据建立了误差修正模型,研究了影响电力行业波动的长期经济因素和短期动态调整效应。研究结果表明,电力行业景气与宏观经济波动具有一致的变化趋势,但波动幅度不同;工业经济增长、高耗电行业结构、库存及电力需求之间存在稳定的长期均衡关系,工业经济增长和经济结构重型化是影响电力需求的最重要因素,库存与电力需求之间存在显著负相关关系;从金融危机时期电力行业波动的谷底来看,工业经济下滑和高耗电行业结构变化是电力行业周期波动出现深谷的主要原因,特别地,由于市场需求变化引起的库存调整能够导致电力需求更剧烈的波动;无论是长期还是短期,电价对电力需求的影响都不显著。
The international financial crisis in 2008 led to a rapid decline in electricity consumption demand in our country, while the macroeconomy maintained positive growth. This phenomenon made people doubt the authenticity of the data. In this paper, the prosperity index of power industry was established by using the method of boom analysis. The periodic fluctuation characteristics of the power industry since 2000 were analyzed. The error correction model was established by using monthly data to study the long-term economic factors and short-term dynamic adjustment effects on the fluctuation of power industry. The results show that there is a consistent trend of fluctuation between the boom of the power industry and the macroeconomic, but the fluctuation range is different. There is a stable long-term equilibrium relationship between industrial economic growth, high power consumption industrial structure, inventory and power demand, industrial economic growth and economy Structure heavy-duty is the most important factor affecting power demand, there is a significant negative correlation between inventory and power demand; from the trough of the power industry during the financial crisis, the decline of industrial economy and high-power industry structure change is the power industry cycle The main reason for the downturn is the volatility. In particular, inventory adjustments due to changes in market demand can lead to more violent fluctuations in electricity demand. The impact of electricity tariffs on electricity demand is not significant, both in the long run and in the short run.