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战争潜力,是评价一个国家实力的重要参数,也是一个国家总体战争能力的基础。尽管今天各国军事战略的重点已不再是准备全面战争,但即便是应对可能的局部战争乃至冲突,也必须对双方的总体能力做到心中有数。研究一个国家的战争潜力,需要对其各方面情况进行综合分析测算,并以该国以往战争的情况作为参考,得出最接近事实的结果。当然,科学的计算战争潜力,是非常复杂的过程,需要烦琐的数据资料、复杂的数学模型及冗长的推理分析。尤其在尚无一场高技术全面战争作为先例的今天,根据以往战争得来的经验肯定有不符合现实之处。因此,本文只是以浅显的案例分析方式,说明国家战争潜力评估的大致方法。读者亦可利用自有的资料,尝试对别国的战争潜力进行分析。本文主要从战争潜力和动员转化能力这两大方面着手,分上、下两篇刊出,上篇介绍战争潜力,包括自然地理及人、财、物力等;下篇介绍原料供应与海运能力(属战争潜力范畴)以及动员转化能力。
The potential of war is an important parameter for evaluating the strength of a nation and also the basis for the overall war capability of a country. Although the military strategy of all countries today is no longer focused on the preparation for a full-scale war, the overall ability of both parties must be well understood even in the face of possible partial wars and even conflicts. Studying the potential of a nation’s war requires a comprehensive analysis and calculation of its various aspects. Using the past war in that country as a reference, we can draw the conclusion that is closest to the facts. Of course, the scientific potential of computing war is a very complex process, requiring cumbersome data, complex mathematical models and lengthy reasoning. Especially in the absence of a high-tech all-out war as a precedent today, the experience gained from past wars certainly does not accord with reality. Therefore, this article is only a simple case analysis to illustrate the general method of assessing the potential of national warfare. Readers can also use their own information to try to analyze the potential of other countries’ war. This article mainly from the potential of the war and the ability to mobilize and transform these two aspects, divided into two chapters, the first chapter describes the potential of the war, including physical geography and human, financial and material resources; next article describes the supply of raw materials and shipping capacity ( A category of potential for war) and mobilization of conversion capabilities.