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为了促进我国中药产业可持续发展。结合德尔菲法和产业安全理论建立中药产业安全评价指标体系。通过文献研究、灰色预测法收集中药产业相关数据,利用熵权TOPSIS法对2007—2013年我国中药产业安全进行评价及实证分析。中药材价格、中药产业进口对外依存度、中药产业研发费用及中药专利对中药产业安全影响大;我国中药产业2007—2010年不安全,2011—2013年基本安全。通过实证分析对中药产业安全进行评价,结论可靠,对中药产业可持续发展具有指导意义。
In order to promote the sustainable development of Chinese medicine industry. Combined with Delphi method and industrial safety theory, the index system of Chinese medicine industry safety evaluation was established. Through literature research, gray forecasting method to collect the relevant data of traditional Chinese medicine industry, the use of entropy TOPSIS method for 2007-2013 China’s traditional Chinese medicine industry safety evaluation and empirical analysis. Chinese herbal medicine prices, dependence on foreign imports of Chinese medicine industry, research and development costs of traditional Chinese medicine industry and patents on traditional Chinese medicine have a great impact on the safety of Chinese medicine industry. China’s traditional Chinese medicine industry is unsafe in 2007-2010 and basic safety in 2011-2013. Through the empirical analysis to evaluate the safety of traditional Chinese medicine industry, the conclusion is reliable and has guiding significance for the sustainable development of Chinese medicine industry.