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区域经济发展不平衡和自然资源的差异,决定了房地产市场存在区域效应。本文提出一个带有随机波动的潜在动态因子模型,将35个大中城市房价分解为全国因子、区域因子和个体因子。利用MS-VAR方法分析了不同政策环境中,货币政策对区域房地产市场的调控效果。研究表明:2008年以来,我国房地产市场区域特征更趋明显。利率、货币供给对高房价区域的抑制或者促进效应要普遍大于中、低房价区域。利率杠杆对房地产价格产生的短期冲击要大于货币供给。
The imbalance of regional economic development and the differences of natural resources determine the regional effect of the real estate market. In this paper, we propose a potential dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility, which decomposes housing prices in 35 cities into national factors, regional factors and individual factors. Using MS-VAR method to analyze the regulatory effect of monetary policy on the regional real estate market in different policy environments. The research shows that since 2008, the regional characteristics of China’s real estate market have become more obvious. The inhibition or promotion effect of interest rates and money supply on the high housing price areas should be generally greater than the middle and low housing price areas. The short-term impact of interest rate leverage on real estate prices is greater than the money supply.