论文部分内容阅读
俄罗斯危机目前仍处在早期阶段,家庭和企业债务的快速增长、银行资产负债表的恶化、政府债务的上升等风险因素尚未充分显现。为深化对本轮俄罗斯危机的理解,笔者比较了1998、2008和2014年俄罗斯危机的情况。从触发危机的外部因素看,本轮冲击可能会持续更长时间;从对外收支看,俄罗斯目前的状况显著好于1998年,但弱于2008年——对外收支流动性持续受到欧美制裁和油价下跌影响,面临较大压力;从国内经济看,经济处在衰退边缘,家庭和企业债务增速
The crisis in Russia is still at an early stage. The risk factors such as the rapid growth of household and corporate debt, the deterioration of bank balance sheets and the rise of government debt have not yet been fully realized. To deepen the understanding of the current crisis in Russia, I compared the Russian crisis in 1998, 2008 and 2014. From the external factors triggering the crisis, the current round of shocks may last longer; from the external balance of payments, the current situation in Russia is significantly better than in 1998, but weaker than 2008 - the external balance of payments liquidity continued to be sanctions in Europe and the United States And the drop in oil prices, facing greater pressure; from the domestic economy, the economy is on the verge of recession, household and corporate debt growth