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近年来,许多国家相继建立了传染病的监察系统,向世界卫生组织报告传染病疫情动态并先后对疟疾、脊髓灰质炎、鼠疫、乙型脑炎、流感等疾病的预测方法进行了研究。国内传染病的预测工作也有了进展,预测的研究已从由单纯的推理预测而进入用数学模型进行数理预测的阶段。疫情预测的意义(一)通过疫情预测,能预报传染病流行趋势、流行发展的速度、规模、受染人群等以便
In recent years, many countries have successively set up a surveillance system for infectious diseases, reported the epidemiological situation of infectious diseases to World Health Organization and conducted research on the prediction methods of malaria, poliomyelitis, plague, Japanese encephalitis and influenza. Advances have also been made in the prediction of infectious diseases in the country. Prediction studies have moved from mathematical reasoning to predictive mathematical prediction. The Significance of Epidemic Prediction (1) Prediction of the epidemic situation can predict the epidemic trend of infectious diseases, the speed and scale of epidemic development, infected population, etc.