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以长江上游甘肃省尚沟流域为研究区,在遥感影像和GIS空间分析技术支撑下,根据USLE因子算法生成各因子栅格图,借助地图代数运算,估算了尚沟流域1998年和2004年的土壤侵蚀量,并对2004年土壤侵蚀与其环境背景因子进行叠加和空间统计分析。在此基础上,构建了与GIS软件平台集成的地理元胞自动机,模拟了该流域2004年、2010年和2020年土壤侵蚀空间演化情形。结果表明:研究区平均侵蚀量从1998年的6598.1t/km2下降到2004年的5923.3t/km2,侵蚀面积净减少172.3hm2,输沙量减少9.15×104t;1300～1400m的海拔高程带、25～35°坡度带、南坡和旱耕地是发生水土流失的主要区域;经模拟,2010年总侵蚀面积为93.49km2,侵蚀总量73.15×104t,侵蚀模数为5126t/km2,土壤侵蚀状况总体上将有所减缓。
Taking the Shanggou Watershed of Gansu Province in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River as a study area and the support of remote sensing image and GIS spatial analysis technology, a grid graph of each factor was generated according to the USLE factor algorithm. With the aid of map algebra, Soil erosion, and 2004 soil erosion and its environmental background factors superimposed and spatial statistical analysis. On this basis, a geographic cellular automata integrated with GIS software platform is constructed to simulate the spatial evolution of soil erosion in 2004, 2010 and 2020 in this basin. The results showed that the average erosion in the study area decreased from 6598.1 t / km2 in 1998 to 5923.3 t / km2 in 2004, with a net decrease of 172.3hm2 in erosion area and a decrease of 9.15 × 104t in sediment load. An elevation elevation zone of 1300-1400m, According to the simulation, the total erosion area in 2010 was 93.49km2, the total erosion amount was 73.15 × 104t, and the erosion modulus was 5126t / km2. The overall soil erosion status General will slow down.