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青岛市作为山东半岛蓝色经济区的龙头城市,其入境旅游流一直呈平稳增长态势。本文基于2005—2010年青岛市入境旅游流的统计数据,利用GM(1,1)灰色模型和季节强度指数,分析了青岛市入境旅游流流量和季节分布。研究发现,GM(1,1)模型对数据的预测主要反映一种趋势,不排除突发事件对数据精确度的干扰;从季节强度指数可知,青岛市的入境旅游流淡季为Ⅰ季度,旺季为Ⅱ季度、Ⅲ季度和Ⅳ季度,其中,季节强度指数最高为第Ⅱ季度,其值为105.37%,高出年平均值5.37%,季节强度指数最低为第Ⅰ季度,其值为89.55%,低于年平均值10.45%。但是,总体上,青岛市入境旅游流的淡旺季分布不太明显,受气候影响较小,全年的入境旅游流人数较为平稳。所以,两项指标对入境旅游流的发展具有一定的参考作用。
As the leading city in Shandong Peninsula Blue Economic Zone, Qingdao’s inbound tourist flow has been steadily increasing. Based on the statistical data of inbound tourist flows in Qingdao City from 2005 to 2010, this paper analyzed the inbound tourist flow and seasonal distribution in Qingdao using GM (1,1) gray model and seasonal intensity index. The results show that GM (1,1) model predicts data mainly reflects a trend that does not rule out the interference of emergencies on data accuracy. According to the seasonal intensity index, the inbound tourist flow in Qingdao is in season Ⅰ and peak season Which is the second quarter, the third quarter and the fourth quarter. Among them, the highest seasonal intensity index is the second quarter, which is 105.37%, higher than the annual average of 5.37%, the lowest is the first quarter, the value of which is 89.55% Below the annual average of 10.45%. However, on the whole, the seasonal distribution of incoming tourist flow in Qingdao is less obvious and less influenced by the climate. The number of inbound tourist flows in the whole year is relatively stable. Therefore, the two indicators have some reference to the development of inbound tourist flow.