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目的评估2017年7月国内外突发公共卫生事件及需要关注传染病的风险。方法根据国内外突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法,并通过视频会议形式邀请省(直辖市、自治区)疾病预防控制中心专家参与评估。结果根据既往监测数据,预计7月全国总体的突发公共卫生事件数和病例数将较6月下降,主要与学校放假、传染病暴发事件下降有关。东南亚国家登革热疫情高发,我国输入病例将持续增加,南方重点省份的本地传播风险将上升;而寨卡病毒病、基孔肯雅热等其他蚊媒传染病也存在输入性病例和输入后发生本地传播的风险。食物中毒事件将继续上升。7-8月也是毒蘑菇中毒事件高发期,且毒蘑菇中毒往往是引起食物中毒死亡的主要死因。洪涝灾区灾后发生的水源性、食源性、动物源性和接触性传染病风险将有所上升。人感染H7N9禽流感在7月将继续下降,但仍可能发现散发病例。7月持续高温潮湿天气,中暑病例易出现高峰。结论预计2017年7月我国的突发公共卫生事件数相对较少;需重点关注登革热、寨卡病毒病、基孔肯雅热等蚊媒传染病,食物中毒以及自然灾害可能带来的传染病和突发公共卫生事件风险;一般关注人感染H7N9禽流感、霍乱和高温中暑。
Objective To assess the public health emergencies at home and abroad in July 2017 and the need to pay attention to the risks of infectious diseases. Methods According to the reports of domestic and foreign public health emergencies and the monitoring of key infectious diseases, the expert consultation method was adopted to invite experts from provincial (municipalities and autonomous regions) CDC to participate in the assessment through video conferencing. Results According to the previous monitoring data, the number of public health emergencies and the number of cases in the nation as a whole are expected to decline in July compared with June, mainly due to the drop in school holidays and infectious disease outbreaks. In Southeast Asia, dengue outbreaks are high, and the number of imported cases in China will continue to increase. The risks of local spread will rise in key southern provinces. Other zika virus diseases such as Zika virus and Chikungunyaya also have imported cases and local Spread the risk. Food poisoning will continue to rise. July-August is also a high incidence of poisonous mushroom poisoning, and poisonous mushroom poisoning is often the leading cause of death from food poisoning. The risk of water-based, food-borne, animal-borne and contagious diseases in flooded areas will rise after the disaster. Human infection with H7N9 bird flu will continue to decline in July, but sporadic cases may still be found. July continued hot and humid weather, prone to peak heat stroke cases. Conclusions It is estimated that there will be relatively few public health emergency incidents in July 2017 in our country. Special attention should be paid to mosquito-borne infectious diseases such as dengue fever, Zika virus disease and chikungunya fever, food poisoning and infectious diseases possibly caused by natural disasters And public health emergencies; people with general concern about H7N9 bird flu, cholera and heat stroke.