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本文从价格变化的波浪理论、经济学理论,以及产糖量、甘蔗价格、国家政策及信息不对称理论等方面对糖价进行探讨,分析了引起我国食糖市场价格波动的因素。试图从理性的角度对糖价的变化作合理的预测。结果认为:糖价的波动符合波浪理论,糖价与上一年总计糖量、当年国内产糖量及上一年度糖精销量呈负相关关系(P<0.05),国内糖价的波动是有规律的。
This article discusses the price of sugar from the wave theory of price change, economic theory, sugar production, sugar cane price, national policy and information asymmetry theory, and analyzes the factors that cause price fluctuations in China’s sugar market. Trying to make a reasonable prediction of changes in sugar prices from a rational perspective. The results showed that the fluctuation of sugar price was in line with the theory of waves. The price of sugar was inversely related to the total amount of sugar in the previous year, the amount of domestic sugar produced in the current year and the sales volume of saccharin in the previous year (P<0.05). The fluctuation of domestic sugar price was a regular pattern. of.