介绍了小浪底工程的概况和近坝岸 (边 )坡外部变形观测的必要性 ,然后对监测系统的方案设计与监测情况进行了叙述 ,用常规分析的方法对观测数据进行了分析 ,最后采用统计学中的逐步线性回归方法 ,对位移量较大的某一测点建立了位移量的数学模型 ,并进行了回归拟合和预报 . This paper introduces the general situation of Xiaolangdi Project and the necessity of observation of the external deformation near the bank (side) slope. Then, the design and monitoring of the monitoring system are described. The observed data are analyzed by the conventional analysis method. Finally, In the method of stepwise linear regression, a mathematical model of displacement is established for a measuring point with a large displacement, and regression fitting and forecasting are carried out.