A new mathematical model to estimate the parameters of the probability-integral method for mining subsidence prediction is proposed. Based on least squares support vector machine (LS-SVM) theory, it is capable of improving the precision and reliability of mining subsidence prediction. Many of the geological and mining factors involved are related in a nonlinear way. The new model is based on statistical theory (SLT) and empirical risk minimization (ERM) principles. Typical data collected from observation stations were used for the learning and training samples. The calculated results from the LS-SVM model were compared with the prediction results of a back propagation neural network (BPNN) model. The results show that the parameters were more precisely predicted by the LS-SVM model than by the BPNN model. The LS-SVM model was faster in computation and had better generalized performance. It provides a highly effective method for calculating the predicting parameters of the probability-integral method.