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文章基于结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,研究了在供给冲击与需求冲击情况下人民币汇率与贸易盈余之间的关系,使用中国1996~2013年的月度数据,并且在模型中加入三大外生变量以保证平稳性。研究结论表明贸易盈余的主要决定因素不是实际汇率,而是其自身的特征,即经济结构和金融结构;人民币实际汇率的主要决定因素也不是贸易盈余,而是外汇市场特征;在中国进行汇改前,实际汇率上升并没有导致通胀率显著下降,但是在汇改之后,发现短期内二者之间的负相关关系非常显著。
Based on the structure vector autoregressive (SVAR) model, this paper studies the relationship between RMB exchange rate and trade surpluses under supply shocks and demand shocks. It uses monthly data from 1996 to 2013 in China and adds three major exogenous Variables to ensure smoothness. The conclusion of the study shows that the main determinant of the trade surplus is not the real exchange rate but its own characteristics, namely, the economic structure and the financial structure. The main determinant of the RMB real exchange rate is not the trade surplus, but the foreign exchange market characteristics. Before the real exchange rate rise did not lead to a significant decline in inflation, but after the reform, found that the short-term negative correlation between the two is very significant.