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本文以上海市17区县为例,利用动态面板GMM估计方法考察了2005-2015年财政支出对其房价的影响。结果发现,财政支出对上海市房价的影响具有明显滞后的正向效应,而且对其市区房价的正向影响明显高于其郊区;但从财政支出蒂布特效应影响的长期性来看,其郊区房价所受影响的持续时间表现更长。根据统计描述,在2005—2015年间上海整体房价的上涨趋势非常明显,而且市区房价的上涨趋势明显高于郊区。鉴于上市土地供应的制约,可以预见,上海市房价在未来一段时期内仍将保持目前的上涨态势。
Taking 17 districts and counties in Shanghai as an example, this paper examines the impact of fiscal expenditure on housing prices from 2005 to 2015 using the dynamic panel GMM estimation method. The results show that the fiscal expenditure has a significant positive effect on housing prices in Shanghai, and the positive effect on housing prices in urban areas is significantly higher than that of its suburbs. However, from the long-term impact of the fiscal subsidy effect, The duration of the impact on suburban house prices has taken longer. According to the statistics, the trend of overall housing price in Shanghai during 2005-2015 is very clear, and the rising trend of urban housing prices is obviously higher than that in the suburbs. In view of the restricted supply of listed land, it is foreseeable that the housing market in Shanghai will maintain its current upward trend in the coming period.