Recently a ten-measure package designed to further support grain production was introduced at an executive meeting of the State Council, or the Cabinet of China. Next day the State Council held a national teleconference on grain production presided by Premier Wen Jiabao. The Premier stressed that steady agricultural production is the basis for managing infl ationary expectation, stabilizing overall consumer prices, driving economic growth and maintaining social stability and harmony; all the regions and departments should embrace the ideas of overall situation, further strengthen leadership, provide more support, and practicably implement the policy to promote the stability and development of grain and agricultural production; all the regions and departments must study the problems in food production seriously, carry out pertinent relief work, fight the drought to guarantee the summer grain yield and a bumper harvest this year.
The central government has been issuing orders repeatedly to emphasize the importance of stabilizing grain output, which, on the other hand, refl ects the grave threat posed to grain production at the moment. Currently a sever drought persists in the north China, the country’s winter wheat production region. In spite of the two precipitations in the northern part after February 9, the welcome respite had a limited effect on easing the drought because of prolonged drought spell. Dry soil measured as thick as more than ten centimeters in most drought-plagued regions. What’s more, the winter wheat in affected areas is turning green gradually and thus is going to need much more water. The current situation is still very grim.
The stability of grain production and grain security are undoubtedly a vital lifeline for China, a nation with a population of 1.3 billion. It is fair to say that the country has greatly improved its agricultural infrastructure and enhanced the comprehensive capacity of grain production with the constant eff orts and policy support from governments at all levels. Currently the grain supply situation is generally good with supply in balance with demand and stockpiles ample to meet consumption. However, what’s alarming is the limitation brought by water conservancy facilities as shown during the current drought spell. According to some data, effective irrigation area only takes a 48 per cent proportion of China’s total farmland area, which means that eff ective irrigation covers less than half of the farmland and most pumping stations have not been built as well as designed speaking of the capacity for irrigation and drainage. Particularly irrigation area is increasing steadily in recent years, but the construction of water conservancy facilities are lagging far behind; what’s more, the serviceability rate of facilities in built irrigation projects is not optimistic, leading to an expanding drought area and deteriorating situation in rural areas, especially in northern China. For the past few years meteorological disasters have been causing China’s grain production to lose as much as 50 billion kilograms every year, handicapped by inadequate water conservancy facilities. T e good news is that last year the Central Economic Work Conference has proposed to increase the investment in rural water conservancy projects, and the No. 1 central documents this year also focused on water conservancy construction. What’s more, Premier Wen Jiabao emphasized that to strengthen agricultural water conservancy construction is the most important thing in the reform and development of water conservancy and the fundamental policy to improve the capacity of agricultural production. It is foreseeable that investment in water conservancy projects will be speeding up during the 12th Five-year period.
Plenty of grain-production regions in the world are suffering from extreme weather. The global supply of grain is like to tightening, which may exacerbate the threat facing China’s grain security system caused by the drought spell in the north. Moreover judged from the current economic situation in China, whether we can ensure grain production will not only aff ect grain security, but also the steady and rapid development of China’s economy. As is known to all, food prices have been one of the main fuels driving the Consumer Price Index(CPI). T e range of rise in food prices in this round of inflation is much broader compared to in the previous one. Expectations will rise for the prices of agricultural products to climb up if the output of wheat and other crops is deduced significantly due to the drought, which will in turn make it even harder for the Chinese government to control infl ation expectations. T erefore it makes it more urgent to win this year’s grain harvest. Besides seen from a long-term perspective, China’s grain security is faced with the challenges of inelastic growth of consumer demand, regional confl ict between supply and demand, intensifying structural inconsistency of varieties, while other constraints on food production, such as shrinking arable land, water shortages, climate changes, are becoming increasingly prominent. T e overall supply-demand pattern will shift from loose supply to tight supply. It will be a longterm and arduous task to ensure grain security.
Let’s hope that governments at all levels will put the work of agriculture, farmers and rural areas on top of their agenda, increase the investment in agricultural development through various ways like government subsidies or policy guidance, and ensure the grain security of this country so as to lay a solid foundation for the stable and rapid development of the economy.