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这是一个GDP的时代。政府每年、每月通过GDP观察经济走势,出台相应政策,各地官员则以GDP作为主要、甚至唯一的政绩目标。国际组织则比较各个国家的GDP增长速度,GDP增长快慢被认为是一个国家是否繁荣强大的最重要指标;国际战略家们预测两个国家的实力对比的时候,也主要拿GDP说事。不过,GDP的历史也就半个多世纪,第二次世界大战后才逐渐被广泛使用。从统计学角度看,作为衡量经济表现的一个总量指标,GDP具有一些非常明显的内在缺陷,50、60年代,很多国家以钢作为经济表现的客观估计之近似值,现在人们则只谈论GDP。其实,就反映经济现实的真实度来说,GDP很可能比不上钢,GDP数据很可能是误导性的。比如,单纯看GDP数据,1950年以来,
This is a GDP era. Every year, the government observes the economic trends through the GDP every month, promulgates the corresponding policies, and officials everywhere regard GDP as the main and only performance goal. International organizations compare the growth rate of each country’s GDP. The rate of GDP growth is considered the most important indicator of whether a country is prosperous or strong. International strategists predict that the strength of the two countries should be compared with that of GDP. However, the history of GDP has also been more than half a century later, only gradually being widely used after the Second World War. From a statistical point of view, as a gross measure of economic performance, GDP has some very obvious inherent shortcomings. In the 1950s and 1960s, many countries used steel as an approximation of objective estimates of economic performance. Now, people only talk about GDP. In fact, to reflect the reality of economic reality, GDP may not be as good as steel, and GDP data are likely to be misleading. For example, simply look at GDP data, since 1950,