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2015/2016年度,国内棉花市场经历了V形走势,市场情绪由极度悲观向乐观转变。我们认为,从周期角度分析,2016年3月、4月棉花价格成功筑底,新的棉花周期开始启动。2016/2017年度棉花价格重心将逐步上移,但在市场情绪和预期转变的情况下,棉花市场出现单边走势的概率降低,振荡将是主旋律。
In 2015/2016, the domestic cotton market experienced a V-shaped trend with the market sentiment changing from extremely pessimistic to optimistic. In our opinion, from a cyclical point of view, cotton prices have bottomed in March and April 2016, and the new cotton cycle has started. The price of cotton will gradually shift its focus in 2016/17. However, with the market sentiment and the expected change, the probability of a unilateral trend in the cotton market will decrease and the oscillation will be the main theme.