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目的 探索安徽省马鞍山市 1987～ 2 0 0 1年居民意外伤害死亡Grey -Markov趋势。方法 用GM(1,1)模型对居民意外伤害死亡率时间序列进行预测 ,建立居民意外伤害死亡率Grey -Markov预测模型。结果 马鞍山市 2 0 0 1年居民意外伤害死亡率Grey -Markov预测值 2 4 .4 4 / 10 5。结论 马鞍山市 2 0 0 1年居民意外伤害死亡率低于 2 0 0 0年 (2 4 .2 1/ 10 5) ,但伤害作为威胁人民健康的重要公共卫生问题应引起有关部门的高度重视。
Objective To explore the Gray-Markov trend of death from accidental injuries among residents from 1987 to 2001 in Ma’anshan City, Anhui Province. Methods GM (1,1) model was used to predict the time series of residents ’accidental injury mortality rate, and Gray-Markov prediction model of residents’ accidental injury mortality rate was established. Results Ma On Shan Resident Casualty Mortality in 2001 Grey-Markov Prediction 2 4 .4 4/10 5. Conclusions The mortality rate of accidental injury in residents in Ma’anshan was lower than that in 2001 (24.21 / 105). However, injury as an important public health problem threatening people’s health should be paid great attention by relevant departments.