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为预测长江中下游河床纵剖面的演变趋势,利用最小能耗率理论计算了该江段的平衡河床纵剖面,研究了这些河段河床演变规律及其未来的变化。分析了长江水库拦沙、河道采砂、近期水沙变化、未来引水及需水量增长等因素。结果表明,长江中下游河床纵剖面还未达到动态平衡,大部分江段以淤积为主。在没有人类活动影响下,达到动态平衡还需要很长一段时间。由于引水和需水量的增长,未来长江中下游达到动态平衡需要淤积更多的泥沙。
In order to predict the longitudinal trend of riverbed longitudinal profile in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the longitudinal section of the balanced riverbed in this section was calculated using the theory of minimum energy consumption, and the evolution of the riverbed in these sections and its future changes were studied. Analysis of the Yangtze River sediment storage, river sand mining, water and sediment changes in the near future, water diversion and water demand growth and other factors. The results show that the longitudinal section of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River has not reached the dynamic equilibrium, and most of the river sections are dominated by siltation. In the absence of human activities, to achieve dynamic balance will take a long time. Due to the increase of water diversion and water demand, more silt will be deposited in the future to achieve dynamic balance in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.