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基于中国大陆1981~2010年小水电装机容量的变化特点,采用加速遗传算法建立了中国小水电开发利用Logistic预测模型,运用自助法对Logistic预测模型的误差进行重抽样,建立了基于自助法的中国小水电开发利用Logistic预测模型(LP-SHD),并预测了2015、2020年中国小水电装机容量95%的置信区间。实例结果表明,LP-SHD模型物理概念清晰、计算简便、预测精度高,在其他可再生能源资源开发利用预测中具有推广应用价值。
Based on the change characteristics of the installed capacity of small hydropower in mainland China from 1981 to 2010, an accelerated genetic algorithm was used to establish the Logistic prediction model for the development and utilization of SHP in China. The self-help method was used to resample the error of the Logistic prediction model. A self- The development of small hydropower uses Logistic prediction model (LP-SHD) and predicts the 95% confidence interval for the installed capacity of small hydropower in China in 2015 and 2020. The experimental results show that the physical concept of LP-SHD model is clear, the calculation is simple and the prediction accuracy is high. It has the value of popularization and application in the development and utilization of other renewable energy resources.