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基于环境库兹涅茨曲线理论,分别设定经济发展与碳排放、贸易开放与碳排放之间的静态与动态面板模型,并通过固定效应模型、随机效应模型和系统GMM估计的方法对新兴11国1992~2013年的平衡面板数据按不同收入水平进行分组检验。研究结果显示,在新兴11国中,高收入水平国家的经济增长与贸易开放最终会降低碳排放量,而中等收入水平国家只有贸易开放最终将起到减排作用。其中,中高收入水平及以上的国家成为碳污染的天堂和转移排放的对象,较低环境约束下的贸易开放与不合理的能源消耗结构是碳排放的主要原因;而中低收入水平国家仍处于享受贸易开放带来的红利之中,其主要问题在于以重化工业为主的产业结构对碳排放量的加剧作用。技术进步则是新兴市场国家实现碳减排的重要方式。
Based on the environmental Kuznets curve theory, the static and dynamic panel models of economic development and carbon emissions, trade openness and carbon emissions were set respectively. The fixed-effects model, stochastic effects model and systematic GMM estimation method were used to simulate the emerging 11 The balance panel data from 1992 to 2013 were grouped according to different income levels. The results show that among the 11 emerging countries, the economic growth and trade liberalization in high-income countries will eventually reduce carbon emissions, while only the middle-income countries will eventually trade liberalization will play a role in reducing emissions. Among them, the countries with higher and higher incomes and above have become the paradise for carbon pollution and the targets for transfer of emissions. The trade liberalization and unreasonable energy consumption structure under lower environmental constraints are the main reasons for carbon emissions while low- and middle-income countries are still in the Among the bonuses enjoyed by the opening up of trade, the major problem lies in the intensified carbon emissions caused by the industrial structure dominated by heavy and chemical industries. Technological progress is an important way for emerging market countries to achieve carbon reduction.