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2008年全球危机以来,全球经济复苏乏力,不少国家就业增加非常缓慢,导致一些经济学家认为全球经济将长期停滞。对全球经济下此结论依据不足,虽然部分发达国家和新兴市场国家可能遭此厄运。从金融结构来看,危机后,美国的金融系统去杠杆化过程已经完成,家庭负债在减少,企业现金流充裕;欧元区去杠杆化过程路途遥远;新兴市场危机后金融系统、家庭、企业甚至政府的债务水平都在增加。从实体经济结构来看,美国有五大优势,各种成本较低,而新兴市场国家面临劳动力成本增加、金融成本增加、去全球化等挑战;从政策空间与改革推动力来看,美国政策空间最大,但改革动力不足;欧元区政策空间有限,但一体化进程将带来新的改革红利;部分新兴市场国家政策空间较小,但改革动力较大。美国、中国和印度可能引领新一轮全球经济增长。
Since the global crisis in 2008, the global economic recovery has been sluggish and the employment growth in many countries has been very slow. As a result, some economists think the global economy will stagnate for a long period of time. This conclusion is not sufficiently grounded in the global economy, although some developed countries and emerging market countries may suffer this fate. From the perspective of financial structure, after the crisis, the deleveraging of the financial system in the United States has been completed, household debt is decreasing and corporate cash flow is abundant. The deleveraging process in the Euro-zone is a long way off. After the emerging market crisis, the financial system, households, enterprises and even Government debt levels are on the rise. In view of the structure of the real economy, the United States has five major advantages and all kinds of costs are low. Emerging market countries are faced with the challenges of increasing labor costs, increasing financial costs and going global. Judging from the policy space and the reform drive, the U.S. policy space However, there is not enough momentum for reform. There is limited room for policy in the Eurozone, but the process of integration will bring about a new dividend for reform. Some emerging market countries have less room for policy but greater reform momentum. The United States, China and India may lead the new round of global economic growth.