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首先基于Laspeyres分解法将广东省1995—2014年的碳排放累计差异分解为碳强度效应、能源强度效应、经济结构效应、经济增长效应,通过计算发现经济增长效应是碳排放增长的首要驱动因素。其次,利用Tapio脱钩模型分析了广东省经济增长与碳排放之间的脱钩关系,研究表明1995—2014年间GDP与碳排放经历了从“弱脱钩”转变为“强脱钩”状态,但总体上仍然呈“弱脱钩”状态。最后,通过实证分析发现广东省碳排放路线图呈倒“N”型变动趋势。
First, based on the Laspeyres decomposition method, the accumulated carbon emissions in Guangdong from 1995 to 2014 are decomposed into carbon intensity effect, energy intensity effect, economic structure effect and economic growth effect. The economic growth effect is the primary driving factor for the growth of carbon emission. Secondly, the decoupling relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions in Guangdong Province is analyzed by using the Tapio decoupling model. The research shows that GDP and carbon emissions have undergone a transition from “weak decoupling ” to “strong decoupling ” during 1995-2014, However, the overall situation is still “weak decoupling ” state. Finally, through empirical analysis, it is found that the roadmap of carbon emission in Guangdong Province is in the “N” shape.