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通过对华北地区耕作制度和生态系统的了解 ,在充分考虑种群遗传学、生物学和人为操纵因子等三大因素的基础上 ,建立了一个预测棉铃虫对转Bt基因抗虫棉抗性适应的模拟模型。在华北地区典型的耕作制度下 ,如果所有棉田均为Bt棉 ,则Bt棉的预期寿命为 7年 ;如果只有春播棉为Bt棉 (约占棉田总面积的 70 % ) ,则其寿命为 10年。模型的灵敏度分析表明 ,Bt棉的使用寿命随抗性基因的显性度、初始抗性频率、Bt棉所占比例等因素的增长而迅速缩短。当Bt棉表达的杀虫蛋白量恰好全部杀死敏感基因型 (GSGS)个体时 ,Bt棉的预期寿命最短。由于国外采用的“高剂量 庇护所”抗性治理策略不适用于棉铃虫及华北棉区的耕作制度 ,我国需要加强对其它抗性治理措施 (如转双基因抗虫棉 )的研究与应用。
Based on the three major factors of population genetics, biology and human manipulation factors, this paper established a prediction model of cotton bollworm resistance to Bt transgenic cotton by understanding the farming system and ecosystem in North China. Simulation model. Under typical tillage in North China, Bt cotton has a life expectancy of 7 years if all of the cotton fields are Bt cotton and 10 years of Bt cotton (about 70% of the total cotton area) year. The sensitivity analysis of the model showed that the service life of Bt cotton rapidly shortened with the increase of the dominant gene resistance, the initial resistance frequency and the proportion of Bt cotton. Bt cotton has the shortest life expectancy when the amount of insecticidal protein expressed by Bt cotton happens to kill all susceptible genotypes (GSGS) individuals. Due to the high dose shelter resistance control strategy adopted abroad does not apply to the farming system of cotton bollworm and cotton fields in North China, we need to strengthen the research and application of other resistance control measures (such as double transgenic cotton).