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目的分析 1992～ 2 0 0 1年哈尔滨市南岗区居民恶性肿瘤死亡水平和变化趋势 ,预测未来 5年死亡率水平。方法资料来源于南岗区卫生防疫站居民死因年报 ,采用 ICD- 9进行死因分类 ,利用 spss软件包分析 ,采用灰色系统 GM(1,1)进行预测。结果 10年间恶性肿瘤死亡率处于不断上升趋势 ,年平均死亡率为 12 4 .2 4 / 10万 ,死亡率性比值为 1.4 8∶ 1。恶性肿瘤死亡前 3位是肺癌、肝癌和胃癌 ,占全部恶性肿瘤死亡的 5 9.81%。在主要恶性肿瘤中 ,食管癌和胃癌呈下降趋势 ,结 /直肠癌上升明显。经世界标准人口调整后 ,死亡率呈下降趋势 ,男女分别下降了 4 .86 %和 7.4 9%。预测 2 0 0 6年恶性肿瘤死亡率男性将达到 15 9.77/ 10万 ,女性将达到 12 4 .74 / 10万。结论恶性肿瘤死亡率呈逐渐升高趋势 ,结 /直肠癌增加速度最快 ,肺癌仍然是死亡率最高的恶性肿瘤 ,人口逐渐老龄化和饮食结构的改变是死亡率增高的重要因素。
Objective To analyze the death level and trend of malignant tumor among residents in Nangang District of Harbin from 1992 to 2001 and predict the level of mortality in the next 5 years. Methods The data were from the annual report of cause of death of residents in Sanitary and Antiepidemic Station of Nangang District. The cause of death was classified by ICD-9. The spss software package was used to analyze the cause of death. The gray system GM (1,1) was used to predict the cause of death. Results The 10-year mortality rate of malignant tumors was on the rise. The average annual mortality rate was 124.24 million and the mortality ratio was 1.4 8: 1. The top three malignancies were lung cancer, liver cancer and gastric cancer, accounting for 5 9.81% of all cancer deaths. In major malignant tumors, esophageal and gastric cancer showed a downward trend, and the incidence of node / rectal cancer increased significantly. After the world’s standard population adjustment, the mortality rate showed a downward trend, with a drop of 4.86% and 7.4% for men and women respectively. It is predicted that the death rate of malignant tumors in 2006 will reach 15 9.77 / 100,000 and the number of females will reach 124.7 / 100,000. Conclusions The mortality rate of malignant tumor is gradually increasing. The rate of node / rectal cancer is the fastest increasing. Lung cancer remains the most serious malignant tumor. The gradual aging of population and the change of dietary structure are the important factors of increasing mortality.