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为能够更好地预测干旱区渭库绿洲的地下水埋深及合理规划、开发地下水资源。以1995-2014年降雨量、蒸发量、农业用水量和地下水埋深等数据作为数据源展开研究。利用主成分分析法提取贡献率较大的因素,将其应用于多变量时间序列CAR(Controlled Auto-regressive)模型,从而建立地下水埋深的预测模型,并对模型进行验证。研究结果表明:渭库绿洲的地下水埋深受蒸发量、农业用水量的影响大,分别为0.533、0.466;模型预测值与实测值相对误差的平均值仅为1.483%,表明该模型在干旱区绿洲区域预测精度高、效果佳。预测趋势显示:若研究区蒸发量持续增加25%、降雨量减少15%、农业用水量减少15%时,地下水埋深将达到4.21 m,预测地下水埋深对渭库绿洲的生态环境和农业发展提供了有力的参考。
In order to better predict the groundwater depth and rational planning of Wei library oasis in arid area, develop groundwater resources. Data from 1995 to 2014, such as rainfall, evaporation, agricultural water use and groundwater depth, were used as data sources. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to extract the factors with large contribution rate, which was applied to the Controlled Auto-regressive (CAR) model to establish the prediction model of groundwater depth and to validate the model. The results show that the groundwater depth of Weiku Oasis is greatly affected by evaporation and agricultural water use, which are 0.533 and 0.466, respectively. The average relative error of model predictive value and measured value is only 1.483%, indicating that the model is effective in arid areas Oasis regional prediction accuracy, good effect. The forecast trend shows that if the evaporation of the study area continues to increase by 25%, the rainfall decreases by 15% and the agricultural water consumption decreases by 15%, the groundwater depth will reach 4.21 m, and the prediction of groundwater depth will affect the ecological environment and agricultural development of Wei library oasis Provide a powerful reference.