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井喷是钻井作业引发的最严重事故之一。通过分析钻井作业过程各个环节,确定钻井过程的风险因素和指标因素,实时监测钻井作业各参数变化,利用模糊综合层次评价法计算出钻井过程井喷风险概率,实现井喷事故动态风险评价。给出了模糊综合评价法的具体步骤,基于该方法还开发了井喷动态安全评价软件,为钻井过程中钻井液参数和钻井工程参数的优选、调整提供理论依据,同时也为钻井过程的安全生产和管理提供了参考依据。
Blowout is one of the most serious accidents caused by drilling operations. By analyzing all aspects of the drilling operation process, the risk factors and index factors of the drilling process are determined, the parameters of the drilling operation are monitored in real time, and the probability of blowout risk of the drilling process is calculated by fuzzy comprehensive hierarchy evaluation method to realize the dynamic risk assessment of blowout accidents. The specific steps of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method are given. Based on this method, the wellbore dynamic safety evaluation software is also developed, which provides a theoretical basis for optimization and adjustment of drilling fluid parameters and drilling engineering parameters during drilling, and also provides a theoretical basis for safe production of drilling processes And management provides a reference.