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自2008年金融危机以来,经济发展模式逐渐由靠投资、出口、消费“三驾马车”拉动为主,向主要依靠出口为主转变。本文主要通过对1994年至2013年20年间的数据整理,将城镇居民最终消费支出作为被解释变量,以城镇居民人均可支配收入、城镇居民储蓄和城镇居民消费价格指数作为解释变量构建计量经济模型,运用计量分析方法对影响居民消费支出的各项因素进行相关分析;并希望找到其中最关键的影响因素,以为政策制定者提供一定参考,最终促使消费需求这架“马车”能引领中国健康、快速、持续发展的基石。
Since the financial crisis in 2008, the mode of economic development has been gradually driven mainly by investment, export and consumption, and mainly by export. In this paper, we mainly analyze the data from 1994 to 2013 by using the final consumption expenditure of urban residents as explanatory variables, and construct econometric models based on the per capita disposable income of urban residents, urban residents’ savings and consumer price index of urban residents as explanatory variables , And uses the method of econometric analysis to analyze the various factors that affect the consumption expenditure of residents; and hope to find out the most crucial influencing factors in order to provide certain reference to policymakers, and ultimately promote the consumption demand. The “carriage” can lead China The cornerstone of healthy, rapid and sustainable development.