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本文运用1990～2010年中国能源消费以及人均GDP的统计数据,分别拟合了不同能耗指标(煤炭、石油、天然气、电力)的能源库兹涅茨曲线,确定了各自的拐点。结果表明:中国经济增长与能源消费量类似于能源库兹涅茨曲线的倒U型,“倒U型”左半部上升通道逐步向顶部趋近,预计2016年达到拐点;天然气和电力能耗基本与经济增长同步变动,散点图几乎呈现线性变动趋势,EyKC拐点无实数解;煤炭EyKC走势分析开始进入下降通道;石油已接近EyKC的拐点,正处于能耗高峰期。
Based on the statistics of China’s energy consumption and GDP per capita from 1990 to 2010, this paper respectively fits the energy Kuznets curves of different energy consumption indicators (coal, oil, natural gas and electricity) and determines their inflection points. The results show that China’s economic growth and energy consumption are similar to the inverted U-shape of the energy Kuznets curve, and the rising channel of the left half of the inverted U-shape gradually approaches the top and is expected to reach an inflection point in 2016. Natural gas and electricity The energy consumption basically changes with the economic growth. The scatter plot shows a trend of linear change almost. The EyKC inflection point has no real number solution. The EyKC trend analysis of coal starts to enter the descending channel. The oil has approached the inflection point of EyKC and is in the peak of energy consumption.