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在农产品需求刚性增长与资源环境约束加剧的背景下,为实现现代农业发展目标,如何确定合适的化肥减量目标值得关注。化肥的过量水平应该是,在满足消费需求又不逾越资源限制的双重约束下,实现农业生产力的有效配置及资源循环利用后仍然有余的量,而化肥减量目标的设定也应基于此量。以满足农产品供给要求和水资源约束为限定条件,以各地区主要农产品生产效率为参数,通过构建优化模型,首先实现资源优化配置,然后根据优化结果,以氮素为衡量指标,判断过剩氮的水平,并推断全国及各地区氮肥减量的比例。结果显示,在优化生产力布局的基础上,要实现环境和谐,全国氮肥减量的要求为67.1%,绝对量为2648.3万吨。为实践减量目标,各地区应因地制宜地发展有机肥产业及节肥技术,倡导科学施肥。
Under the background of the rigid growth of demand for agricultural products and the aggravating of constraints on resources and the environment, it is deserving to pay attention to determine the appropriate target of reducing fertilizer in order to achieve the goal of modern agricultural development. Excessive level of chemical fertilizer should be, under the dual constraints of meeting consumer demand without exceeding the resource limit, the effective allocation of agricultural productivity and the amount of resources after recycling are still enough, and the setting of fertilizer reduction target should also be based on this amount . In order to meet the requirements of agricultural products supply and water resources constraints as the limited conditions, taking the production efficiency of major agricultural products in each region as the parameter, the optimization model is firstly established to optimize the allocation of resources. Based on the optimization results, nitrogen is used as the index to judge the excess nitrogen Level, and infer the national and regional nitrogen fertilizer reduction ratio. The results show that on the basis of optimizing the layout of productive forces, to achieve environmental harmony, the national requirement for nitrogen reduction is 67.1% and the absolute amount is 26.483 million tons. In order to practice the goal of reduction, all regions should develop organic fertilizer industry and fertilizer-saving techniques according to local conditions, and advocate scientific fertilization.