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基于1956—2011年辽宁省浑河干流两个水文站年均径流量数据和降水量数据,分析了浑河流域降水径流的变化规律,采用双累积曲线法确定径流变化的基准期和人类活动影响期,并利用降水—径流相关模型法估算了浑河流域径流演变的降水和人类活动因素。结果表明:1)浑河干流水文站控制区域降水基本稳定,略呈减少趋势,降水量没有显著的趋势性和突变特征。2)从总体变化趋势来看,从1956—1980年基本处于缓慢下降过程,1980—2011年受大水年的影响较大,天然径流量出现明显的上升—下降波动过程。浑河干支流区域径流量多在1975年出现突变,从1975年开始,径流量比前期显著减少。3)北口前以上区间降水因素对径流量起增加作用,但是由于人为对洪水的调控,实际径流量却小于基准期;邢家窝棚降水因素对径流的减小作用在增加,由1980年代的30.7%增加到2000年代的57.6%,同期人类活动因素作用由69.3%减小到42.2%。
Based on the average annual runoff data and precipitation data of two hydrological stations in Hunxihe River from 1956 to 2011, the variation regularity of precipitation runoff in Hunhe River Basin was analyzed. The double cumulative curve method was used to determine the baseline period and the influence of human activities Period, and using precipitation-runoff correlation model to estimate runoff evolution and human activities in Hunhe River Basin. The results show that: 1) Precipitation in the control area of Hydrology Station in Hunhe River is basically stable, with a slight decrease trend, and there is no significant trend and abrupt change in precipitation. 2) From the overall trend of change, from 1956 to 1980, the process of basic decline was slow. From 1980 to 2011, the flood season was more affected by the flood season, and the natural runoff increased obviously - decreasing the fluctuation. The runoff in the trunk and tributaries of the Hun River mostly mutated in 1975, and from 1975 onwards, runoff decreased significantly over the previous period. However, due to man-made flood control, the actual runoff is less than the baseline period. The reduction effect of Xingjia shack rainfall on runoff is increasing from 30.7 in the 1980s % To 57.6% in the 2000s, while the role of human activities decreased from 69.3% to 42.2% over the same period.