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针对传统汛期和枯期划分方法存在一定主观性的问题,本文提出了基于月径流重构序列变异分析的水文分期方法.该方法将原始月径流序列按照一定的方式进行重新排序,构造重构序列;运用水文变异诊断系统对重构序列进行变异诊断分析确定变异点,通过公式推导得出变异点对应的变异月份;根据变异月份分析汛期和枯期的差异性,确定水文分期.以广东省北江流域为例,选择高道、石角等共计10个水文站的逐月实测流量资料,通过重构各站的月径流序列,并对其进行变异诊断得到两个显著的变异点,据此计算确定相应站点的汛期和枯期.统计各站点汛期和枯期的起止时间规律,确定北江流域汛期为3~8月、枯期为当年9月~次年2月.文中北江流域各水文站分期结果与模糊统计方法比较结果表明,基于变异分析的水文分期方法与基于模糊统计的分期方法结果基本一致,分期结果合理可信,可以满足分期需要.该方法以研究序列的变异点作为划分汛期和枯期的依据,一定程度上克服了水文分期的主观性.
In view of the subjectivity of traditional flood season and dry season partitioning methods, this paper presents a hydrological staging method based on monthly runoff reconstruction sequence variation analysis, which reorders the original monthly runoff sequences in a certain way and constructs a reconstructed sequence ; The use of hydrological mutation diagnosis system to analyze the variation of the reconstructed sequence to determine the mutation point, deduced by the formula variation point corresponding variation month; according to the variation month analysis of flood season and dry period of the difference to determine the hydrological staging.With the North River in Guangdong Province Taking the watershed as an example, monthly measured flow data of 10 hydrological stations, such as Gaodao and Shijiao, were selected. By reconstructing the monthly runoff sequences of each station and diagnosing the variation, two significant variation points were obtained, Determine the flood season and dry season of the corresponding site.Statistics of the start and end time regularities of flood season and dry season of each site, determine the flood season of Beijiang River Basin as March to August and the dry season from September to February of the current year. Results Compared with fuzzy statistical methods, the results show that the hydrological staging method based on mutation analysis is basically the same as the staging method based on fuzzy statistics, If the result is reasonable and credible, the staging needs can be satisfied.This method takes the study of sequence variation as the basis for dividing flood season and dry season, to a certain extent, to overcome the subjectivity of hydrological staging.