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针对煤与瓦斯突出机制尚不明确、影响因素复杂的问题,在对煤与瓦斯突出的阶段特征和能量耗散规律分析的基础上,考虑到煤岩体应力场分布和突出孔洞特征,建立煤与瓦斯突出三维结构模型,并基于该模型引入围岩弹性潜能,并根据突出后煤体的堆积状态和断裂表面能,计算得出移动功和破碎功,从而构建突出能量条件模型和突出强度预测模型,并结合突出案例进行验证。同时在突出能量条件模型基础上,采用Morris筛选法对突出影响因素的灵敏度进行分析。研究结果表明:瓦斯内能是瓦斯突出的最主要能量来源,在突出过程中起主导作用,突出能量条件模型和强度预测模型的分析结果与实际突出案例偏差较小,可作为突出灾害的预测和分析依据;中梁山矿和化处矿的突出案例中,对于突出强度、瓦斯涌出量和突出能量,吨煤瓦斯含量为主导因素,灵敏度最大,其次是瓦斯扩散系数、瓦斯压力和孔隙率,而岩石的相关参数的灵敏度接近0。
Aiming at the problem that the coal and gas outburst mechanism are not clear and the influencing factors are complex, based on the analysis of the phase characteristics and energy dissipation law of coal and gas outburst, considering the stress field distribution of coal and rock mass and the prominent hole characteristics, And gas outburst three-dimensional structural model, and based on the model to introduce the surrounding rock elastic potential, and according to the accumulation of the post-stack of coal and fracture surface energy, calculate the work of art and broken work to build prominent energy conditions model and highlight the intensity of prediction Model, combined with outstanding cases to verify. At the same time, on the basis of highlighting the energy condition model, Morris screening method was used to analyze the sensitivity of the prominent influencing factors. The results show that gas is the most important source of gas outburst and plays a leading role in the process of gas outburst. The analysis result of the prominent energy condition model and the strength prediction model has less deviation from the actual case. It can be used as a predictor of disasters and In the outstanding cases of Zhongliangshan Mine and Huahuizu Mine, the gas sensitivity of the coal is the dominant factor and the gas diffusion coefficient, the gas pressure and the porosity are the second most prominent factor in the project of highlighting intensity, gas emission and highlighting energy. The sensitivity of rock related parameters is close to zero.