今年以来,价格总水平运行改变过去几年疲弱走势,居民消费价格(CPI)涨幅回升,工业生产者出厂价格(PPI)降幅收窄,市场预期发生较大变化,出现了对通胀的担忧。本文基于历史视角,厘清了影响物价变动的主要因素,通过研判影响因素变化,认为在经济基本面未明显变化的情况下,当前物价水平回升更多是阶段性的,经济运行中面临的仍主要是通缩风险而非通胀风险。 Since the beginning of this year, the overall level of price movements have changed the weak trend of the past few years. The rise in the consumer price index (CPI) has picked up. The producer price PPI has narrowed. The market is expected to undergo major changes and inflation concerns have emerged. Based on the historical perspective, this paper clarifies the main factors that affect the price changes. By analyzing the changes of the influencing factors, we think that under the condition of no obvious change of economic fundamentals, the current price level rebound is more staged, and the economic operation still faces major Deflation risk rather than inflation risk.