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针对有寿件工作寿命分布不确定、备件数量难预测的问题,提出了一种基于正态等效的有寿件备件方案确定方法。首先通过贝叶斯理论将有寿件的工作寿命分布等效为正态分布,进而计算其备件需求量;然后提出到寿更换概率用以度量部件在更换周期内的安全收益;最后通过综合权衡安全收益和经济成本确定有寿件的最佳更换周期,得到备件保障方案。在算例中,通过与仿真结果的对比表明:本文方法合理可行,精度较高。
Aiming at the problem of uncertain life distribution of service life and difficulty in predicting the number of spare parts, a method of determining spare parts based on normal equivalent is proposed. First, through the Bayesian theory, the working life distribution of a life piece is equivalent to a normal distribution, and then the spare parts demand is calculated. Then the life replacement probability is proposed to measure the safety benefits of the parts in the replacement cycle. Finally, Safety benefits and economic costs to determine the best replacement life cycle, access to spare parts protection program. In the example, the comparison with the simulation results shows that the method in this paper is reasonable and feasible and the precision is high.