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香菇(Lentinus edodes)是我国目前产量最高的食用菌品种,其价格波动关系到香菇生产者的收入水平和食用菌产业的发展。根据中国食用菌协会、山东省食用菌协会、中国食用菌商务网等对山东省主要蔬菜批发市场食用菌价格的统计数据,利用Census X12季节调整法和H-P滤波法对2010年5月~2015年6月的香菇价格波动进行了分析,发现夏秋两季香菇价格较高,冬春两季价格略低,且长期来看香菇价格呈增长趋势。随后运用ARIMA模型对2015年7月~12月的香菇价格进行了预测,结果显示2015年下半年我国香菇价格将继续保持增长趋势。最后提出可以通过建立和完善价格信息平台,推行价格保险制度,研发低成本温度控制技术和设备,提高香菇散养户的组织化程度等措施稳定香菇的市场价格,促进散养户增收等相关对策建议。
Lentinus edodes is the most productive edible fungus species in China at present. The price fluctuation is related to the income level of shiitake mushroom producers and the development of mushroom industry. According to the statistical data of edible fungus prices of major vegetable wholesale markets in Shandong Province, such as China Edible Fungi Association, Shandong Edible Mushroom Association and China Edible Mushroom Business Network, the Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and HP filtering method were used to estimate the edible fungus price in May 2010 ~ 2015 The price of mushrooms in June was analyzed. The prices of mushrooms in summer and autumn were higher, the price in winter and spring was slightly lower, and the price of mushrooms showed an increasing trend in the long run. Then using the ARIMA model to predict the price of mushrooms from July to December 2015, the results show that in the second half of 2015, China’s mushroom prices will continue to grow. At last, it puts forward some countermeasures to stabilize the market price of mushrooms, such as establishing and perfecting price information platform, implementing price insurance system, developing low cost temperature control technology and equipment, and improving the organization degree of mushroom households Suggest.