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提出了基于子集模拟的边坡风险评估的高效随机有限元法(RFEM),推导了基于子集模拟的边坡失效概率和失效风险的计算公式,并给出了基于高效RFEM的边坡可靠度分析和风险评估流程图。采用一个边坡算例验证了所提方法的有效性。结果表明,基于子集模拟的高效RFEM可以视为是对基于蒙特卡洛模拟的传统RFEM的改进,显著地提高了失效概率和失效风险的计算效率以及失效样本的产生能力,非常适用于分析小失效概率的可靠度问题,极大地增强了RFEM在边坡可靠度分析和风险评估中的实用性。高效RFEM将边坡的整体失效风险分解为对应不同概率水平的边坡失效风险,并量化了它们对整体风险的相对贡献度。在该方法中,边坡可靠度分析和风险评估与确定性边坡有限元分析互不耦合,极大地简化了它们的计算过程。此外,土体不排水抗剪强度的竖向空间变异性对边坡失效风险具有显著的影响。
A highly efficient stochastic finite element method (RFEM) for risk assessment of slope based on subset simulation is proposed. The calculation formula of slope failure probability and failure risk based on subset simulation is deduced. The slope reliability based on high efficiency RFEM is also given Degree analysis and risk assessment flow chart. A slope example is used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the high efficiency RFEM based on subset simulation can be regarded as an improvement on the traditional RFEM based on Monte Carlo simulation, which significantly improves the computational efficiency of failure probability and failure risk and the generation of failure samples. It is very suitable for the analysis of small The reliability of failure probability has greatly enhanced the practicality of RFEM in slope reliability analysis and risk assessment. Efficient RFEM decomposes the overall failure risk of slopes into slope failures corresponding to different probabilities and quantifies their relative contribution to the overall risk. In this method, slope reliability analysis and risk assessment are not coupled with finite slope finite element analysis, which greatly simplifies their calculation process. In addition, the vertical spatial variability of undrained shear strength of soil has a significant impact on the failure risk of slope.