生长模型是研究树木生长过程和进行森林经营管理中常用的工具。使用4期北京市侧柏人工林一类清查共计26个样地、1 172株单木数据建立了3个胸径生长模型。模型自变量选用了林木生长、立地条件和林木竞争3类因子,在建模过程中剔除了出现严重多重共线性问题的自变量,使用逐步回归方法所建的3个模型均通过了方差分析、方差齐性和残差正态性检验。使用检验数据对模型进行T检验,结果表明实际值和预测值差异不显著,即所建立的3个单木模型具有良好的预测效果。 Growth model is to study the process of tree growth and management of forest management tools commonly used. A total of 26 sample plots were planted in a series of 4 species of Oriental arborvitae plantation in Beijing, and 1 DBH data were used to establish 3 DBH models. The model independent variable selected three kinds of factors of tree growth, site conditions and forest competition. During the modeling process, the variables with serious multicollinearity were eliminated. The three models built by stepwise regression method all passed the analysis of variance, Variance homogeneity and residual normality test. The test data is used to test the model by T test. The result shows that there is no significant difference between the actual value and the predicted value, that is, the three single-wood models established have a good prediction effect.