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未来10年20年.中国经济的增长将会是什么样?我认为,中国经济发展的态势完全有可能保持过去25年大约相等、即每年8%左右的速度。当然会有所起伏,但是总体上来讲,保持8%-10%的速度是完全可能的。研究一个国家的长期经济增长,最重要看的是三个方面:第一是这个国家要素增加的速度的可能性是多少。要素当中,土地是不会增加的,劳动力增加受人口制约,重要的是资本的积累速度可能会怎样;第二是产业结构增加的可能性是怎样的。同样的要素用来生产从附加值比较低的产品转移到附加值比较高的产品的时候,即使各种要素不增加,经济也增长;第三是技术。同样的产业,技术水平提高了,经济也能发展。在上述三个方面中,技术最重要。第一点,资本增加的可能性受技术的变迁制约。如果技术不
In the next 10 years and 20 years, what will China’s economic growth be like? In my opinion, the trend of China’s economic development is entirely possible to maintain an approximately equal rate of about 25% in the past 25 years or so. Of course, there will be ups and downs, but overall, to maintain the 8% -10% speed is entirely possible. The study of a country’s long-term economic growth, the most important thing to look at are three aspects: First, what is the probability that the national element will increase in speed? Among the factors, the land will not increase, the increase of the labor force will be restricted by the population, and what is important is the rate of accumulation of capital. What is the possibility of an increase in the industrial structure? The same elements are used to produce products from the lower value-added products to higher value-added products, even if the various elements do not increase, the economy also grows; the third is technology. The same industry, improved technology, economic development. Among the above three aspects, technology is the most important. First, the possibility of increased capital is constrained by technological change. If technology is not