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预测人们可能的投资行为,在投资中至关重要。市场在大多数情况下是有效的,但并非是完全有效的。有效市场理论假设所有市场参与者都是理性的,而这显然并不符合现实市场情况。投资者并非如有效市场理论所说是理性的,而是不时受心理因素的影响左右投资决策,投资者的心理因素影响了市场的走势变化。历史上这样的例子不胜枚举,近如2000年的网络股泡沫,2007年的全球资本市场泡沫;远如郁金香泡沫,美国的佛罗里达地产泡沫,1987年的黑色星期五事件等。
Predicting the likely investment behavior of people is crucial to investing. The market is effective in most situations, but not entirely effective. Efficient market theory assumes that all market participants are rational, which obviously does not meet the real market conditions. Investors are not rational as effective market theory, but from time to time by the psychological factors affecting the investment decision-making, investors, psychological factors affect the market changes. There are many examples in history, such as the Internet bubble in 2000, the global capital market bubble in 2007, the tulip bubble, the real estate bubble in the United States and the Black Friday in 1987.