在这里我想谈两个问题。一、中国房地产业的发展轨迹是怎么样的?未来两年的周期规律变化会怎么样?周期波动是客观存在的经济现象。有的人认为，现在经济持续发展，总会有周期波动。这就需要解释一下：二次大战后，世界经济的周期波动属于“增长型周期波动”，即经济的绝对量逐年在增长，只不过是增长幅度(增长率)有大有小而已。增幅最大的年份就是周期波动的“波峰”，增幅最小的年份就是周期波动的“波谷”。所以。尽管经济形势处于持续发展时期，即绝对量持续增长，但在此过程 Here I want to talk about two issues. First, China’s real estate development trajectory is like? The next two years the law of the cyclical changes will happen? Periodic fluctuations is an objective economic phenomenon. Some people think that, with the continuous economic development, there will always be periodic fluctuations. This needs to be explained: After World War II, the cyclical fluctuations in the world economy are “growth cycle fluctuations”, that is, the absolute amount of the economy is growing year by year, but the growth rate (growth rate) is small by itself. The year with the largest increase is the “peak” of cyclical fluctuations, and the year with the smallest increase is the “trough” of cyclical fluctuations. and so. Although the economic situation is in a period of sustained development, that is, the absolute volume continues to grow, but in this process