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研究强矿震的短临预测信息具有较大的实用价值。结合工程实例阐述该理论模型建模方法,精度处理方法等,以原始时间序列数据为基础,建立矿震发生步距的模拟和预测GM(1,1)模型。针对数值模拟中大量的矩阵计算,利用MATLAB软件编制高效的计算机程序,实现了对矿震发生步距的模拟和预测。为了检验模型模拟和预测结果的精度,选择了合理的误差检验模型。通过工程实例证明了GM(1,1)模型可信度较高,关联度较好,均方差比值为一级,拟合优度高。
It is of great practical value to study the short-term prediction information of strong earthquakes. Based on the original time series data, the modeling and prediction GM (1, 1) model of mine occurrence step is established by combining with engineering examples. Aimed at a large number of matrix calculation in numerical simulation, an efficient computer program was compiled by using MATLAB software to simulate and predict the occurrence of mine earthquake. In order to test the accuracy of model simulation and prediction results, a reasonable error checking model was chosen. The engineering example shows that the GM (1,1) model has high reliability and good correlation, and the mean square error ratio is first order and the goodness of fit is high.