论文部分内容阅读
In an interview with Beijing Review， Jon Taylor， Chair of the Department of Political Science at the University of St. Thomas in Houston， Texas， shared his views on the U.S. Government’s hardline policies against China’s Huawei， a multinational technology leader. An edited version of the interview follows：
Beijing Review： Why do you think the Donald Trump administration has imposed a ban on Huawei despite the fact that it has produced no evidence that the Chinese company poses a security threat？
Trump has done this because he’s an economic nationalist， a protectionist and， quite frankly， a bullying， blustering politician looking for ways to score some easy political points before the next U.S. presidential election. He thinks that playing the national security card against Huawei will make him look tough in his trade war against China. Many U.S. allies don’t appear to see a threat from Huawei. Trump is trying to poison the well against a U.S. technology competitor.
What consequences will the ban have on U.S. companies and consumers if it is enforced after the 90-day license reprieve？
The consequences will be profound. Putting Huawei on a trade blacklist that bans companies from doing business with it immediately disrupted the global tech sector. If the ban is enforced after the 90-day reprieve， rural telecom networks in the U.S. stand to be hit quite hard by the ban. The Rural Wireless Association （RWA） estimated last year that if Huawei and ZTE were to be banned in the U.S.， up to 25 percent of RWA’s carrier members would be impacted. Simply stated， Chinese wireless telecom companies have been an essential provider of the components that are needed to build and operate rural networks. Trump will manage to again harm the very people that he claims he is helping with these shortsighted policies.
Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei said in a recent interview that the company aims to benefit all of humanity and is always open to international cooperation. As it becomes a world-leading Chinese tech company， do you think it is destined to clash with U.S. national interests？
Given the quality of Huawei’s smartphones， and the sheer size of the market share that the company commands， I think that a clash was inevitable since there is a rising protectionist and anti-economic globalization mindset among many U.S. politicians， Republicans and Democrats alike. Trump’s bluster serves to focus and magnify U.S. economic nationalism. Ren is correct about Huawei’s benefi t to the world. Despite its extremely limited presence in the U.S.， Huawei is the second biggest smartphone maker in the world after Samsung. Its smartphones are quite popular， irrespective of their availability in the U.S. Huawei has emerged as one of a handful of global smartphone device makers that has actually seen its sales volume grow. What disappoints me is that while Huawei smartphones are of high quality and can operate on U.S. carrier networks， the vast majority of people in the U.S. shopping for smartphones will likely not see a Huawei device on store shelves for the foreseeable future. In your view， how could the deadlock be resolved？ Under what conditions would the U.S. Government change its tough stance against Huawei？
Sadly， I’m not sure that it is going to go away any time soon. Trump seems determined to use Huawei as yet another bargaining chip in his trade war against China. Contrary to popular belief among U.S. officials， Huawei is not a stateowned enterprise but a privately held company that has been quite good at competing globally by procuring highvalue business with its lead in network infrastructure， 5G equipment and premium smartphones.
I think that the deadlock will eventually be resolved by some sort of “grand bargain”on trade between China and the U.S. Several factors will drive the U.S. to change its tough stance on Huawei： U.S. tech fi rms losing their global market share， U.S. consumers （who also happen to be voters） complaining about wireless network connectivity and the rising cost of wireless services， and China’s threat on rare earth minerals that could adversely impact a number of U.S. technology companies. At some point Trump and his advisors will need to understand that if the U.S. attempts to undermine Chinese technologies， China will simply minimize its dependency on the U.S. and accelerate the development of indigenous technologies and operating systems.
Beijing Review： Why do you think the Donald Trump administration has imposed a ban on Huawei despite the fact that it has produced no evidence that the Chinese company poses a security threat？
Trump has done this because he’s an economic nationalist， a protectionist and， quite frankly， a bullying， blustering politician looking for ways to score some easy political points before the next U.S. presidential election. He thinks that playing the national security card against Huawei will make him look tough in his trade war against China. Many U.S. allies don’t appear to see a threat from Huawei. Trump is trying to poison the well against a U.S. technology competitor.
What consequences will the ban have on U.S. companies and consumers if it is enforced after the 90-day license reprieve？
The consequences will be profound. Putting Huawei on a trade blacklist that bans companies from doing business with it immediately disrupted the global tech sector. If the ban is enforced after the 90-day reprieve， rural telecom networks in the U.S. stand to be hit quite hard by the ban. The Rural Wireless Association （RWA） estimated last year that if Huawei and ZTE were to be banned in the U.S.， up to 25 percent of RWA’s carrier members would be impacted. Simply stated， Chinese wireless telecom companies have been an essential provider of the components that are needed to build and operate rural networks. Trump will manage to again harm the very people that he claims he is helping with these shortsighted policies.
Huawei founder Ren Zhengfei said in a recent interview that the company aims to benefit all of humanity and is always open to international cooperation. As it becomes a world-leading Chinese tech company， do you think it is destined to clash with U.S. national interests？
Given the quality of Huawei’s smartphones， and the sheer size of the market share that the company commands， I think that a clash was inevitable since there is a rising protectionist and anti-economic globalization mindset among many U.S. politicians， Republicans and Democrats alike. Trump’s bluster serves to focus and magnify U.S. economic nationalism. Ren is correct about Huawei’s benefi t to the world. Despite its extremely limited presence in the U.S.， Huawei is the second biggest smartphone maker in the world after Samsung. Its smartphones are quite popular， irrespective of their availability in the U.S. Huawei has emerged as one of a handful of global smartphone device makers that has actually seen its sales volume grow. What disappoints me is that while Huawei smartphones are of high quality and can operate on U.S. carrier networks， the vast majority of people in the U.S. shopping for smartphones will likely not see a Huawei device on store shelves for the foreseeable future. In your view， how could the deadlock be resolved？ Under what conditions would the U.S. Government change its tough stance against Huawei？
Sadly， I’m not sure that it is going to go away any time soon. Trump seems determined to use Huawei as yet another bargaining chip in his trade war against China. Contrary to popular belief among U.S. officials， Huawei is not a stateowned enterprise but a privately held company that has been quite good at competing globally by procuring highvalue business with its lead in network infrastructure， 5G equipment and premium smartphones.
I think that the deadlock will eventually be resolved by some sort of “grand bargain”on trade between China and the U.S. Several factors will drive the U.S. to change its tough stance on Huawei： U.S. tech fi rms losing their global market share， U.S. consumers （who also happen to be voters） complaining about wireless network connectivity and the rising cost of wireless services， and China’s threat on rare earth minerals that could adversely impact a number of U.S. technology companies. At some point Trump and his advisors will need to understand that if the U.S. attempts to undermine Chinese technologies， China will simply minimize its dependency on the U.S. and accelerate the development of indigenous technologies and operating systems.