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本文选取具有典型意义的5个发达国家和发展中国家的经济发展过程作为分析样本,比较研究其不同经济发展阶段上主导产业的更替和作用机理;揭示某些具有一般性意义的变化趋向与政策逻辑。本文的主要结论是:从样本国家既有的历史过程看,确实存在着不同经济发展阶段上的主导产业及其更替;在不同典型意义的国家之间,主导产业的存在及其作用严格地依赖于特定的资源约束、制度约束及其历史文化约束,据此我们将揭示某些完全出乎既有思维定势之外的主导产业种类及其作用机理。对主导产业存在和发生作用的不同背景及其政策机理的把握要远比概括主导产业的选择基准、方法重要得多,也有价值得多。
This paper chooses five typical developed countries and developing countries as the analysis of the economic development process, comparative study of different stages of economic development on the leading industries of the replacement and mechanism of action; reveal some of the general trends of change and policy logic. The main conclusion of this paper is: From the historical process in sample countries, there are indeed dominant industries and their replacement at different stages of economic development. The existence and role of leading industries are strictly dependent on countries with different typical meanings With specific resource constraints, institutional constraints and their historical and cultural constraints, we will reveal some types of leading industries that completely outweigh the established thinking and their role mechanisms. It is much more important and far more valuable to grasp the different backgrounds and the policies and mechanisms for the existence and function of leading industries than to summarize the selection criteria for leading industries.