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目的探讨分析气象因素对手足口病发病的影响及其滞后效应。方法通过收集嘉峪关市2008-2012年每日手足口病发病资料,结合同一时间段的气象资料,利用分布滞后非线性模型分析气温与人群手足口病发病的关联性,分析不同温度和不同滞后天数对手足口病发病的影响。结果手足口病发病与气象因素关系密切,发病高峰一般出现在每年的5-7月,对气象因素与手足口病病例数据做相关分析,表明嘉峪关市手足口病每日发病人数与气温、气压、风速和相对湿度均存在相关性。当日均气温较高时(20℃以上),温度对手足口病发病滞后效应大约出现在第10天左右。气象因素在嘉峪关市手足口病的发生和发展中具有重要作用,温度对手足口病日发病存在明显的滞后效应。结论手足口病发病受到多种气象因子共同作用的影响,但首要影响因素是高温。
Objective To analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease and its lag effect. Methods By collecting the daily incidence of HFMD in Jiayuguan City from 2008 to 2012 and combining the meteorological data of the same period with the lag distribution nonlinear model to analyze the correlation between air temperature and the incidence of HFMD in population and analyzing the effects of different temperature and different lag days The impact of foot and mouth disease. Results The incidence of hand, foot and mouth disease was closely related to meteorological factors. The peak incidence usually occurred in May and July of each year. Correlation analysis was made between meteorological factors and hand, foot and mouth disease data. The results showed that daily incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Jiayuguan City was related to temperature and air pressure There is a correlation between wind speed and relative humidity. When the average daily temperature is high (above 20 ℃), the temperature lag effect of foot-and-mouth disease occurs about the 10th day. Meteorological factors play an important role in the occurrence and development of hand-foot-mouth disease in Jiayuguan City. The temperature has a significant lag effect on the onset of hand-foot-mouth disease. Conclusion The incidence of hand-foot-mouth disease is affected by the combination of many meteorological factors, but the primary influencing factor is high temperature.