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基于2000年1月~2015年12月饲料、活鸡与白条鸡市场价格月度数据,运用向量误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数等对中国肉鸡产业链价格传导机制及其特征进行了深入研究。结果显示:长期内中国肉鸡产业链整合情况较好,短期内中国肉鸡产业链价格协整系统具有显著自我修正功能,且产业链价格传导具有一定滞后性;肉鸡产业链顺向价格传导效率较高、逆向传导效果不佳;外部价格波动冲击产生的影响不断增大,自身价格惯性冲击产生的影响不断减弱,肉鸡产业链价格波动的相互影响关系得到增强。基于研究结论提出了相关对策建议,以便为制定相关市场调控和产业融合发展政策提供有意义的参考。
Based on the monthly data of market prices of feed, live chickens and white chickens from January 2000 to December 2015, vector transmission error correction model and impulse response function were used to study the price transmission mechanism and characteristics of China chickens industry chain. The results show that in the long term, the integration of China’s chicken industry chain is better. In the short term, the price cointegration system of China’s chicken industry chain has a significant self-correcting function, and the transmission of the industry chain price has a certain lag. The forward price of the broiler industry chain conducts more efficiently , The negative effect of reverse transmission is poor; the impact of external price fluctuation impact is increasing, the impact of its own price inertia impact is weakened continuously, and the interaction between price fluctuation of broiler industry chain is enhanced. Based on the conclusions of the study, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward so as to provide a meaningful reference for the formulation of relevant market regulation and industrial integration development policies.